As the adage goes: with a new year comes new beginnings. 2025 really feels like the start of a new chapter for Vietnam. This is a feeling compounded by a number of factors including: policy reform aiming to streamline governance and enhance efficiency under new leadership, a new world order and Vietnam is poised to enhance its strategic position global value chain.

We expect the VN-Index to reach 1,400 – 1,420 toward year-end, following a 18% FY24F earnings growth and P/E target of 12.5 -13x. We identify 8 winning themes for 2025 including: (1) The new cycle of residential property, (2) Seizing opportunities from robust state investment , (3) The story of banking sector, (4) China’s aggressive stimulus package & its potential impact, (5) Elevating power consumption, (6) Trump 2.0 & beneficiaries, (7) The emergency of new industries; (8) The tail of Vietnam‘s market status upgrade.

Downside risks to the market include: slower the pace of FED rate cut, currency pressure, slower-than-expected recovery of residential market. Upside catalyst includes the earlier-than-expected MSCI Emerging Market upgrade of Vietnam. In this publication, we also highlight the exciting investment potential in new industries, ie: semiconductor, 5G and data center.

Do enjoy the read, and we wish you a profitable year of investing!

Vietnam Dynamics 2025 – Confidently stride into the era of expansion