Weekly Strategy

Vietnam Dynamics 2H2025 – Seeking Alpha in an unstoppable bull market

Posted: Jul 18, 2025

We expect Vietnam to maintain sustainable growth across all aspects in the remaining months of the year, driven by new momentum from both public and private investment. Exports are projected to decelerate in 2H25 as the economy adjusts to new tariff conditions. However, this will likely be offset by a more accommodative fiscal policy and low interest rates, which are expected to support the recovery of domestic consumption.
The budget surplus recorded in the first half of the year also provides a solid foundation for the implementation of expansionary fiscal measures in the near future. Decisive efforts in institutional reform, administrative streamlining, and model transformation will help create room for medium- and long-term growth. In 2H25, we anticipate capital flows to shift towards large-cap stocks that have not seen significant price increases recently, thanks to their attractive valuations and earnings growth potential.
Under our base-case scenario, with an expected 17% earnings growth for listed companies and a market valuation of 13,5–13,8 times P/E, we forecast the VN-Index to reach 1.500 – 1.540 by year-end. In a more optimistic scenario, where the impact of U.S. tariff policies is less severe than expected and foreign capital flows increase significantly due to potential market reclassification, we project earnings growth of 19%, a forward P/E of 13,5–14 times, and the VN-Index potentially advancing to 1.580 by the end of the year.