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Retail Sector – The opportunity from changing regulations

Posted: Jul 18, 2025

In 1H2025, retail and consumer goods sales grew by 9.3% yoy, higher than the average in 2024 but still below the pre-pandemic growth rate. This reflects that domestic consumer demand has recovered compared to the same period last year but remains at a low level due to unfavorable economic conditions. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, new policy support aimed at boosting consumer confidence and supporting incomes is expected to further sustain the recovery in retail and consumer goods sales growth. However, we do not foresee a breakthrough given the ongoing economic headwinds (with CPI remaining high and PMI affected by the negative impact of tariffs).
We see that companies owning modern grocery retail chains and mainstream consumer goods production are benefiting from structural policy changes such as greater transparency in input invoices and stricter controls on counterfeit and substandard goods. In addition, the draft amendment to Decree 24/2012/ND-CP, which would allow the import of gold materials for jewelry production, will lay the groundwork for growth among major jewelry companies in the medium to long term.
In this retail investment strategy, we select companies with attractive valuations and superior profit growth compared to their industry peers. Furthermore, we believe that changes to Decree 24/2012/ND-CP will pave the way for the expansion of retail scale and production capacity for jewelry companies in the medium to long term. Therefore, we favor MWG and PNJ, and gradually accumulate VNM to anticipate a strong recovery in 2026–2027.