3Q25 Earnings Forecast – Consumer & Retail Sector: Scaling modern retail with profitability
Posted: Oct 2, 2025
- Total consumption and retail sales grew 10.4% yoy, of which retail sales rose 10% yoy, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand, with expectations for a stronger rebound supported by upcoming stimulus programs and the anticipated approval of the PIT law.
- In the retail market, we observe that modern essential mini retail chains are successfully expanding into new regions (the Central area) and are expected to maintain their store-opening momentum in 3Q25, with growth estimated at 16% YTD.
- Net profit growth in 3Q25 for modern retail enterprises is expected to maintain strong momentum from a low base, with notable names such as MWG and FRT estimated to surge by 75% and 63% yoy, respectively. In contrast, on the consumer side – specifically the dairy market – consumption recovery remains slow; however, price improvements are expected to offset this weakness, leading to an estimated 8% yoy increase in VNM’s net profit.
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