Steel sector: Steel prices and domestic output recovery strengthen Q3 earnings
Posted: Sep 25, 2025
- In Q3/25, domestic output is expected to remain a key highlight with projected growth of 21% YoY. Supported by positive demand, construction steel, HRC, and coated steel are likely to edge up 2–3% QoQ and stay flat YoY.
- Gross margin expansion is driven by steel price recovery, while coal and iron ore prices decline 6%/5% YoY.
- Companies with high domestic exposure (HPG, HSG) are projected to deliver robust margin expansion, driving net profit growth of 56% and 244% YoY. Export-oriented peers (NKG, GDA) are expected to see a more gradual margin recovery, though easing freight costs support net profit growth of 38% and 42% YoY.
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