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Sea port & Maritime transportation Sector – Deep-Water Ports Are Set to Outperform

Posted: Jul 18, 2025

Following a robust recovery in 5M2025, we anticipate container freight rates will begin a downward adjustment from 3Q/2025, due to: (1) Vessel traffic through the Red Sea is projected to gradually normalize as geopolitical tensions ease, coupled with a 15% reduction in Suez Canal transit fees, incentivizing shipping lines to revert to original routes. (2) U.S. container shipping demand is expected to decline in 2H2025, as early inventory stockpiling has already boosted retail inventory levels. (3) The global shipping fleet continues to experience increasing overcapacity.
We project container throughput to remain stable in 2025 before a strong rebound in 2026, underpinned by Vietnam’s inherent strengths, supported by: (1) Vietnam is set to maintain the competitiveness of its key export items through lower reciprocal tariffs compared to regional peers, (2) government initiatives supporting key export sectors to diversify into new, high-demand markets are effectively reducing reliance on the U.S. market, and (3) consumer purchasing power in major export markets is anticipated to recover as inflation moderates, thereby significantly boosting cargo volumes through Vietnamese ports.
Given the strategic focus on deep-water port expansion, capitalizing on the global trend of increasing vessel sizes, and the continuous enhancement of logistical support systems, we are confident Vietnam’s seaport sector will sustain its competitive advantage and growth momentum throughout 2025-2026, particularly true for deep-water hubs like Lach Huyen and Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Consequently, we strongly favor companies that are actively developing deep-water ports, demonstrate high operational efficiency at existing facilities, and possess strategically advantageous port locations, with GMD stands out as our top pick.

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